Every figure below has a source with a URL and the day it was read. Where a number is not published anywhere you can check, this post says so instead of estimating it.
The short version
Panels moved more than lumber this year. In the United States, the producer price index for hardwood plywood rose 11.8 percent between August 2025 and August 2026 1, and the index for softwood veneer and plywood rose 12.5 percent over the same twelve months 2. The narrow index for prefinished particleboard and MDF rose 23.5 percent 3. Hardwood lumber barely moved, up 1.8 percent 5.
In Canada the pattern is flatter but pointed the same way. Softwood lumber was up 8.6 percent year over year in August 2026, hardwood lumber up 6.0 percent, and veneer and plywood up 6.3 percent 9.
If you buy sheet goods, your input costs went up more than the general lumber story suggests. If you buy solid stock, less so.
What the US index numbers say
These are index numbers published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They measure prices received by domestic producers. They are not the price you pay a distributor, and they do not include tariffs or freight.
| Series | Aug 2025 to Aug 2026 |
|---|---|
| Hardwood plywood 1 | up 11.8% |
| Softwood veneer and plywood 2 | up 12.5% |
| Prefinished particleboard and MDF 3 | up 23.5% |
| Hardboard, particleboard and fiberboard products 4 | up 3.0% |
| Hardwood lumber, not edge worked 5 | up 1.8% |
| Lumber 6 | up 7.6% |
| Millwork 7 | up 3.9% |
| Wood kitchen cabinets and countertops 8 | up 4.3% |
Two things stand out. The first is the gap between the narrow prefinished particleboard and MDF series, up 23.5 percent, and the broader hardboard and fiberboard series, up 3.0 percent 3,4. Most of that narrow move happened fast: the index sat at 217.1 in December 2025, reached 268.2 by May 2026, and has not moved since 3. A narrow index moves on few transactions, so treat it as a signal rather than a quote.
The second is that finished cabinets, up 4.3 percent 8, rose less than the panels they are made from. Shops absorbed part of the input move.
What the Canadian index numbers say
Statistics Canada publishes the industrial product price index on a January 2020 base of 100. In August 2026 the readings were 146.3 for softwood lumber, 166.1 for hardwood lumber, 148.4 for veneer and plywood, and 134.1 for wood millwork and wood products not elsewhere classified 9. The aggregate for lumber and other wood products was 137.3, up 6.2 percent on the year 10.
Read the base differently and the six-year picture appears. Hardwood lumber prices received by Canadian producers are 66 percent above January 2020. Veneer and plywood are 48 percent above it. Millwork is 34 percent above it 9.
Statistics Canada notes that the index excludes tariffs and duties directly, but that tariffs can influence the prices it measures indirectly through supply and demand 24. Keep that caveat in mind before attributing any single month to any single measure.
What a sheet costs on a shelf
Index numbers are not prices. Distributor prices to cabinet shops are not published anywhere public, so they cannot be cited here. Retail shelf prices can. These were read from The Home Depot Canada product pages on 19 September 2026, in Canadian dollars, for a single sheet:
- 3/4 inch 4x8 white melamine particleboard, CAD 68.98 11
- 3/4 inch 4x8 sanded birch plywood, CAD 74.98 12
- 3/4 inch 49 by 97 inch MDF, CAD 90.20 13
These are one retailer, one day, one country. They are useful as a reference point and useless as a benchmark for what a shop with an account pays. US retailer pages could not be read from a citable public source for this post, so no US shelf price is given.
Hardwood
Hardwood is sold by the board foot and graded, so a single number means little without the grade. Hearne Hardwoods publishes a price list, last updated 14 August 2026, and it is one of the few dealer lists that is public. Its posted ranges per board foot are hard maple 9.00 to 16.00, soft maple 6.75 to 13.00, white oak 6.50 to 19.50, red oak 3.00 to 10.50, cherry 3.00 to 14.75 and black walnut 6.00 to 25.00 14.
That spread is the whole point. Walnut tops out at roughly 1.5 times the top of hard maple and more than twice the top of red oak on the same list. A species change does not move a job by a fixed percentage. It moves the parts made from that species.
Why they moved: duties and tariffs
Several measures took effect inside this twelve-month window. The post on tariffs covers them in detail. In brief:
Proclamation 10976 of 29 September 2025 imposed a 10 percent duty on softwood timber and lumber and a 25 percent duty on kitchen cabinets and vanities, including parts imported for use in them, effective 14 October 2025 15. Proclamation 11000 of 31 December 2025 deferred the scheduled increase on cabinets and vanities to 1 January 2027 16.
On 16 July 2026 the US Department of Commerce announced final affirmative determinations on hardwood and decorative plywood from China, Indonesia and Vietnam, with a final antidumping margin of 187.27 percent for China and a countervailing rate of 88.96 percent 17.
On 24 August 2026 the Canada Border Services Agency made preliminary determinations on decorative and other non-structural plywood from China, and provisional duties became payable the same day, at 227.5 percent of export price for exporters without a specific rate 18.
Duties on Canadian softwood lumber also remain in force, with combined rates from the sixth administrative review still applying and seventh review results pending 19.
Why they moved: demand and supply
Demand did not drive this. US housing starts in August 2026 ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,275,000, which is 1.2 percent below August 2025, and completions were 27.1 percent below 20. In Canada the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate was flat at 229,046 units, with the year to date down 4 percent 21. Remodelling, which matters more to a cabinet shop than new construction, was projected in July 2026 to grow 2.1 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2026 and 0.5 percent by the first quarter of 2027, on annual owner improvement and repair spending of about 517 billion dollars 22.
On the supply side, one forecaster called for North American average annual lumber capacity to drop 1.3 billion board feet in 2026 23. That report is dated 6 February 2026, so it is a forecast made early in the year, not a measurement of what happened.
What is not public
Three things a shop would want and cannot get from a citable source. Distributor and wholesale prices to cabinet shops are not published. Prefinished melamine panel prices by decor and supplier are not published. Regional sheet-good prices by city are not published. Anyone quoting those to you as an industry average is quoting an estimate, and it should be treated as one.
What this means for a two-person shop
Your panel costs moved more than your solid stock costs, and more than the finished cabinet index moved. That means margin compression unless you repriced.
Three practical responses. First, reprice off your own invoices, not off a news figure, because the published series are indexes and your supplier is not the index. Second, put a validity window on every quote you send, because two of the measures above landed mid-year and one more is scheduled for 1 January 2027 16. Third, keep species priced at the part rather than the project, because the walnut spread on a public dealer list is far wider than the maple spread 14 and a percentage uplift on the whole job will be wrong in both directions.
When this was checked
Every figure here was read on 19 September 2026 and reflects data published through August 2026. Index numbers are revised. Duty rates change on administrative review. Check the reviewed date at the top of this post before you quote anything in it to a client.